MALAYSIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
INSTITUT PENYELIDIKAN EKONOMI MALAYSIA (149064-U)
Upcoming Events: 2012
19 January | Press Conference on Quarterly Survey Results and Malaysian Economic Outlook Fourth Quarter 2011 MIER, Level 2, Podium City Point, Kompleks Dayabumi | |
http://www.mier.org.my/
MIER SURVEYS
The Business Conditions Survey
The Business Conditions Survey was first mounted in the second
quarter of 1987 to provide input for the Institute's economic
forecasting activity. It is conducted on a quarterly basis to assist in
assessing the short-term outlook for the economy. The survey findings
are used to supplement the availability of quantitative information from
conventional sources. A Business Conditions Index is constructed from
the survey results which gives advance information that permits
inferences to be drawn regarding emerging economic trends.
The survey covers a sample of over 350 manufacturing businesses
incorporated locally and foreign manufacturing concerns operating in
Malaysia, covering 11 industries. Questions posed in the survey
questionnaire are on key determinants such as production level, new
order bookings, sales performances, inventory build-up and new job
openings. Reports of the survey findings are published two weeks after
the end of each quarter.
Click here to go to the latest BCI
Click here to go to the latest BCI
Business Conditions Index: BCI3Q2011
STILL EXPANDING BUT SLOWER
- Index 9.5 points lower at 104.5 points
- Sales, production and new export orders lower
- New local orders and capacity utilization stable
- Expect lower production and export sales over next three months
The Survey of Consumer Sentiments
The Survey of Consumer Sentiments, initiated in January 1987, is a
series of surveys conducted quarterly on a sample of over 1200
households in Peninsular Malaysia to gauge consumer spending trends and
sentiments. Consumer behaviour reflects income level and general
economic conditions. Together with the business conditions survey,
findings of this survey relating to consumer spending are incorporated
into MIER's short-term economic outlook report.
Repondents are asked about perceptions on their household's current
and expected financial positions and their employment outlook. The
survey also seeks to uncover general economic conditions such as
inflation as seen from the consumers' perspective. Questions relating to
their plans to buy houses, new or used cars and other major consumer
durable are also asked. A quarterly Index of Consumer Sentiments is
generated from the survey.
Click here to go to the latest CSI
Click here to go to the latest CSI
Consumer Sentiments Index: CSI3Q2011
A SENSE OF RETICENCE
- CSI slips y-o-y to 108.7 points
- Current incomes moderating
- Employment and financial expectations quiescent
- Worries over inflation continue
- Shopping plans on low gear
MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Executive Summary
The global economic outlook remains fluid and increasingly worrying.
Further deterioration in the economic and financial environment in the
Eurozone will likely weaken U.S. further, with repercussions for
international trade. Further monetary policy easing beside the
"operation twist" will be necessary in 2012 to revive the U.S. economy.
China and other emerging economies are heading for a soft landing in the
near term. Weaker global outlook, which reduces demand for commodities,
will bring about lower inflationary pressures ahead. In turn, this may
provide leeway for policy easing in selected economies, such as China.
In Malaysia, the 2Q11 GDP growth edged lower to 4.0 percent
year-on-year due to a weaker domestic demand. By sector, services (6.3
percent) and manufacturing (2.1 percent) were the main growth engines.
Economic growth momentum will probably moderate from 2H11 onwards
arising from a weaker exports outlook. Further implementation of ETP
projects and Budget 2012 handouts will boost domestic demand, but
unlikely to offset underperformance in net exports. Against this
background, MIER downgrades 2011 GDP growth rate to 4.6 percent
year-on-year. For 2012, MIER revises the GDP growth forecast to 5.0
percent.
As a result of protracted slowdown in global and regional economic
outlook, MIER's Business Conditions Index (BCI) and CEO Confidence Index
(CEO) eased to 104.5 points and 93.3 points, respectively in 3Q11. In
contrast, the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) edged up marginally to
108.7 points, on receding inflationary expectations. Seasonal factors
lifted Retail Trade Index (RTI) higher to 128.4 points. Easing supply
disruptions pushed Automotive Industry Index (AII) higher to 150.0
points.
Recent foreign exchange liberalization measures will be neutral
on the performance of ringgit since higher direct investment abroad will
be offset by inflows from more trade finance and easier borrowing rules
from nonresident related companies. Thus, RM/USD is projected to
average around 3.00 in 2011. Improving macroeconomic fundamentals will
see an average RM/USD of 2.95 in 2012.
Heightened global risk aversion resulted in sudden reversal in
government bond market and sell-off in Asian currencies and equity
markets. The ringgit fell 3.3 percent in NEER terms, while the FBMKLCI
sagged 4.2 percent in Sep-11. With further unwinding of USD carry
trades, the RM/USD is forecasted to average around 3.20 in 2011, before
appreciating to 3.10 in 2012.
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